On hierarchical competition through reduction of individual growth.

We consider a population organised hierarchically with respect to size in such a way that the growth rate of each individual depends only on the presence of larger individuals. As a concrete example one might think of a forest, in which the incidence of light on a tree (and hence how fast it grows) is affected by shading by taller trees. The classic formulation of a model for such a size-structured population employs a first order quasi-linear partial differential equation equipped with a non-local boundary condition. However, the model can also be formulated as a delay equation, more specifically a scalar renewal equation, for the population birth rate. After discussing the well-posedness of the delay formulation, we analyse how many stationary birth rates the equation can have in terms of the functional parameters of the model. In particular we show that, under reasonable and rather general assumptions, only one stationary birth rate can exist besides the trivial one (associated to the state in which there are no individuals and the population birth rate is zero). We give conditions for this non-trivial stationary birth rate to exist and analyse its stability using the principle of linearised stability for delay equations. Finally, we relate the results to the alternative, partial differential equation formulation of the model.

Boom-bust population dynamics drive rapid genetic change.

Increasing environmental threats and more extreme environmental perturbations place species at risk of population declines, with associated loss of genetic diversity and evolutionary potential. While theory shows that rapid population declines can cause loss of genetic diversity, populations in some environments, like Australia's arid zone, are repeatedly subject to major population fluctuations yet persist and appear able to maintain genetic diversity. Here, we use repeated population sampling over 13 y and genotype-by-sequencing of 1903 individuals to investigate the genetic consequences of repeated population fluctuations in two small mammals in the Australian arid zone. The sandy inland mouse (Pseudomys hermannsburgensis) experiences marked boom-bust population dynamics in response to the highly variable desert environment. We show that heterozygosity levels declined, and population differentiation (FST) increased, during bust periods when populations became small and isolated, but that heterozygosity was rapidly restored during episodic population booms. In contrast, the lesser hairy-footed dunnart (Sminthopsis youngsoni), a desert marsupial that maintains relatively stable population sizes, showed no linear declines in heterozygosity. These results reveal two contrasting ways in which genetic diversity is maintained in highly variable environments. In one species, diversity is conserved through the maintenance of stable population sizes across time. In the other species, diversity is conserved through rapid genetic mixing during population booms that restores heterozygosity lost during population busts.

Stage-Specific Demographic Effects of Hydrologic Variation in a Stream Salamander.

AbstractWe lack a strong understanding of how organisms with complex life histories respond to climate variation. Many stream-associated species have multistage life histories that are likely to influence the demographic consequences of floods and droughts. However, tracking stage-specific demographic responses requires high-resolution, long-term data that are rare. We used 8 years of capture-recapture data for the headwater stream salamander Gyrinophilus porphyriticus to quantify the effects of flooding and drying magnitude on stage-specific vital rates and population growth. Drying reduced larval recruitment but increased the probability of metamorphosis (i.e., adult recruitment). Flooding reduced adult recruitment but had no effect on larval recruitment. Larval and adult survival declined with flooding but were unaffected by drying. Annual population growth rates (λ) declined with flooding and drying. Lambda also declined over the study period (2012-2021), although mean λ was 1.0 over this period. Our results indicate that G. porphyriticus populations are resilient to hydrologic variation because of compensatory effects on recruitment of larvae versus adults (i.e., reproduction vs. metamorphosis). Complex life cycles may enable this resilience to climate variation by creating opportunities for compensatory demographic responses across stages. However, more frequent and intense hydrologic variation in the latter half of this study contributed to a decline in λ over time, suggesting that increasing environmental variability poses a threat even when demographic compensation occurs.

France needs a chief science adviser.

France is at a crossroads, facing environmental and social challenges that are profoundly altering its society. Yet, the French government keeps prioritizing short-term political gains over long-term evidence-based planning for major transitions that France, like most countries, will undergo over the next 20 years. There is an urgent need for France to implement long-term science-informed policy-making.

The Demographic-Wealth model for cliodynamics.

Cliodynamics is a still a relatively new research area with the purpose of investigating and modelling historical processes. One of its first important mathematical models was proposed by Turchin and called "Demographic-Fiscal Model" (DFM). This DFM was one of the first and is one of a few models that link population with state dynamics. In this work, we propose a possible alternative to the classical Turchin DFM, which contributes to further model development and comparison essential for the field of cliodynamics. Our "Demographic-Wealth Model" (DWM) aims to also model link between population and state dynamics but makes different modelling assumptions, particularly about the type of possible taxation. As an important contribution, we employ tools from nonlinear dynamics, e.g., existence theory for periodic orbits as well as analytical and numerical bifurcation analysis, to analyze the DWM. We believe that these tools can also be helpful for many other current and future models in cliodynamics. One particular focus of our analysis is the occurrence of Hopf bifurcations. Therefore, a detailed analysis is developed regarding equilibria and their possible bifurcations. Especially noticeable is the behavior of the so-called coexistence point. While changing different parameters, a variety of Hopf bifurcations occur. In addition, it is indicated, what role Hopf bifurcations may play in the interplay between population and state dynamics. There are critical values of different parameters that yield periodic behavior and limit cycles when exceeded, similar to the "paradox of enrichment" known in ecology. This means that the DWM provides one possible avenue setup to explain in a simple format the existence of secular cycles, which have been observed in historical data. In summary, our model aims to balance simplicity, linking to the underlying processes and the goal to represent secular cycles.

The angiogenic growth of cities.

Describing the space-time evolution of urban population is a fundamental challenge in the science of cities, yet a complete theoretical treatment of the underlying dynamics is still missing. Here, we first reconstruct the evolution of London (UK) over 180 years and show that urban growth consists of an initial phase of diffusion-limited growth, followed by the development of the railway transport network and a consequential shift from central to suburban living. Such dynamics-which are analogous to angiogenesis in biological systems-can be described by a minimalist reaction-diffusion model coupled with economic constraints and an adaptive transport network. We then test the generality of our approach by reproducing the evolution of Sydney, Australia, from 1851 to 2011. We show that the rail system coevolves with urban population, displaying hierarchical characteristics that remain constant over time unless large-scale interventions are put in place to alter the modes of transport. These results demonstrate that transport schemes are first-order controls of long-term urbanization patterns and efforts aimed at creating more sustainable and healthier cities require careful consideration of population-transport feedbacks.

Resilience to periodic disturbances and the long-term genetic stability in Acropora coral.

Climate change is restructuring natural ecosystems. The direct impacts of these events on biodiversity and community structure are widely documented, but the impacts on the genetic variation of populations remains largely unknown. We monitored populations of Acropora coral on a remote coral reef system in northwest Australia for two decades and through multiple cycles of impact and recovery. We combined these demographic data with a temporal genetic dataset of a common broadcast spawning corymbose Acropora to explore the spatial and temporal patterns of connectivity underlying recovery. Our data show that broad-scale dispersal and post-recruitment survival drive recovery from recurrent disturbances, including mass bleaching and mortality. Consequently, genetic diversity and associated patterns of connectivity are maintained through time in the broader metapopulation. The results highlight an inherent resilience in these globally threatened species of coral and showcase their ability to cope with multiple disturbances, given enough time to recover is permitted.

Sociodemographic factors underlying lifetime fertility among ever-married Swazi women.

Fertility rates remain high in certain subgroups of the population, and there is limited research about the sociodemographic factors influencing fertility, particularly in Eswatini where women are often considered minors. This study aims to investigate the changes in lifetime fertility, and the associations between sociodemographic factors and lifetime fertility among ever-married women. The study used secondary cross-sectional data from the 2010 and 2014 Eswatini Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), with a sample size of 2,295 and 2,351 women, respectively. The data was analysed using descriptive statistics and multivariable Poisson regression. The results showed that fertility rates decreased from 3.47 to 3.21 children between 2010 and 2014. The study found that child loss and age (25+ years) were significant factors associated with higher fertility, while delayed age at marriage and sexual debut (20+ years), at least secondary education, and being rich were strong predictors of lower fertility rates. The study recommends creating awareness about and strengthening laws to abolish early sexual debut and marriage. It also suggests empowering women through education, encouraging the use of contraceptives, and providing maternal and child health services in rural areas where fertility rates tend to be higher.

Les taux de fécondité restent élevés dans certains sous-groupes de la population, et les recherches sur les facteurs sociodémographiques influençant la fécondité sont limitées, en particulier à Eswatini où les femmes sont souvent considérées comme mineures. Cette étude vise à étudier les changements dans la fécondité au cours de la vie et les associations entre les facteurs sociodémographiques et la fécondité au cours de la vie chez les femmes déjà mariées. L'étude a utilisé des données transversales secondaires des enquêtes par grappes à indicateurs multiples (MICS) d'Eswatini de 2010 et 2014, avec un échantillon de 2 295 et 2 351 femmes, respectivement. Les données ont été analysées à l'aide de statistiques descriptives et d'une régression de Poisson multivariée. Les résultats ont montré que les taux de fécondité ont diminué de 3,47 à 3,21 enfants entre 2010 et 2014. L'étude a révélé que la perte d'enfants et l'âge (25 ans et plus) étaient des facteurs importants associés à une fécondité plus élevée, tandis qu'un âge plus tardif au mariage et aux débuts sexuels (20 ans et plus) ), au moins une éducation secondaire, et le fait d'être riche étaient de puissants prédicteurs de taux de fécondité plus faibles. L'étude recommande de sensibiliser et de renforcer les lois visant à abolir les premiers rapports sexuels et le mariage précoces. Il suggère également d'autonomiser les femmes grâce à l'éducation, d'encourager l'utilisation de contraceptifs et de fournir des services de santé maternelle et infantile dans les zones rurales où les taux de fécondité ont tendance à être plus élevés.

Using the dead to infer about the living: Amphibian roadkill spatiotemporal dynamics suggest local populations' reduction.

Roads represent one of the main sources of wildlife mortality, population decline, and isolation, especially for low-vagility animal groups. It is still not clearly understood how wildlife populations respond to these negative effects over space and time. Most studies on wildlife road mortality do not consider the spatial and temporal components simultaneously, or the imperfect roadkill detection, both of which could lead to inaccurate assumptions and unreliable mitigation actions. In this study, we applied a multi-season occupancy model to a 14-year amphibian mortality dataset collected along 120 km of roads, combined with freely available landscape and remote sensing metrics, to identify the spatiotemporal patterns of amphibian roadkill in a Mediterranean landscape in Southern Portugal. Our models showed an explicit general decrease in amphibian roadkill. The Iberian painted frog (Discoglossus galganoi) experienced roadkill declines over time of ∼70 %, while the spiny common toad (Bufo spinosus) and the fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) had a loss of nearly 50 %, and the Southern marbled newt (Triturus pygmaeus) had 40 %. Despite the decreasing trend in roadkill, spatial patterns seem to be rather stable from year to year. Multi-season occupancy models, when combined with relevant landscape and remote sensing predictors, as well as long-term monitoring data, can describe dynamic changes in roadkill over space and time. These patterns are valuable tools for understanding roadkill patterns and drivers in Mediterranean landscapes, enabling the differentiation of road sections with varying roadkill over time. Ultimately, this information may contribute to the development of effective conservation measures.

Infection-induced increases to population size during cycles in a discrete-time epidemic model.

One-dimensional discrete-time population models, such as those that involve Logistic or Ricker growth, can exhibit periodic and chaotic dynamics. Expanding the system by one dimension to incorporate epidemiological interactions causes an interesting complexity of new behaviors. Here, we examine a discrete-time two-dimensional susceptible-infectious (SI) model with Ricker growth and show that the introduction of infection can not only produce a distinctly different bifurcation structure than that of the underlying disease-free system but also lead to counter-intuitive increases in population size. We use numerical bifurcation analysis to determine the influence of infection on the location and types of bifurcations. In addition, we examine the appearance and extent of a phenomenon known as the 'hydra effect,' i.e., increases in total population size when factors, such as mortality, that act negatively on a population, are increased. Previous work, primarily focused on dynamics at fixed points, showed that the introduction of infection that reduces fecundity to the SI model can lead to a so-called 'infection-induced hydra effect.' Our work shows that even in such a simple two-dimensional SI model, the introduction of infection that alters fecundity or mortality can produce dynamics can lead to the appearance of a hydra effect, particularly when the disease-free population is at a cycle.

The influence of gene flow on population viability in an isolated urban caracal population.

Wildlife populations are becoming increasingly fragmented by anthropogenic development. Small and isolated populations often face an elevated risk of extinction, in part due to inbreeding depression. Here, we examine the genomic consequences of urbanization in a caracal (Caracal caracal) population that has become isolated in the Cape Peninsula region of the City of Cape Town, South Africa, and is thought to number ~50 individuals. We document low levels of migration into the population over the past ~75 years, with an estimated rate of 1.3 effective migrants per generation. As a consequence of this isolation and small population size, levels of inbreeding are elevated in the contemporary Cape Peninsula population (mean FROH = 0.20). Inbreeding primarily manifests as long runs of homozygosity >10 Mb, consistent with the effects of isolation due to the rapid recent growth of Cape Town. To explore how reduced migration and elevated inbreeding may impact future population dynamics, we parameterized an eco-evolutionary simulation model. We find that if migration rates do not change in the future, the population is expected to decline, though with a low projected risk of extinction. However, if migration rates decline or anthropogenic mortality rates increase, the potential risk of extinction is greatly elevated. To avert a population decline, we suggest that translocating migrants into the Cape Peninsula to initiate a genetic rescue may be warranted in the near future. Our analysis highlights the utility of genomic datasets coupled with computational simulation models for investigating the influence of gene flow on population viability.

Theoretical considerations and empirical predictions of the pharmaco- and population dynamics of heteroresistance.

Antibiotics are considered one of the most important contributions to clinical medicine in the last century. Due to the use and overuse of these drugs, there have been increasing frequencies of infections with resistant pathogens. One form of resistance, heteroresistance, is particularly problematic; pathogens appear sensitive to a drug by common susceptibility tests. However, upon exposure to the antibiotic, resistance rapidly ascends, and treatment fails. To quantitatively explore the processes contributing to the emergence and ascent of resistance during treatment and the waning of resistance following cessation of treatment, we develop two distinct mathematical and computer-simulation models of heteroresistance. In our analysis of the properties of these models, we consider the factors that determine the response to antibiotic-mediated selection. In one model, heteroresistance is progressive, with each resistant state sequentially generating a higher resistance level. In the other model, heteroresistance is non-progressive, with a susceptible population directly generating populations with different resistance levels. The conditions where resistance will ascend in the progressive model are narrower than those of the non-progressive model. The rates of reversion from the resistant to the sensitive states are critically dependent on the transition rates and the fitness cost of resistance. Our results demonstrate that the standard test used to identify heteroresistance is insufficient. The predictions of our models are consistent with empirical results. Our results demand a reevaluation of the definition and criteria employed to identify heteroresistance. We recommend that the definition of heteroresistance should include a consideration of the rate of return to susceptibility.

Decadal changes in biomass and distribution of key fisheries species on Newfoundland's Grand Banks.

Canadian fisheries management has embraced the precautionary approach and the incorporation of ecosystem information into decision-making processes. Accurate estimation of fish stock biomass is crucial for ensuring sustainable exploitation of marine resources. Spatio-temporal models can provide improved indices of biomass as they capture spatial and temporal correlations in data and can account for environmental factors influencing biomass distributions. In this study, we developed a spatio-temporal generalized additive model (st-GAM) to investigate the relationships between bottom temperature, depth, and the biomass of three key fished species on The Grand Banks: snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio), yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea), and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Our findings revealed changes in the centre of gravity of Atlantic cod that could be related to a northern shift of the species within the Grand Banks or to a faster recovery of the 2J3KL stock. Atlantic cod also displayed hyperaggregation behaviour with the species showing a continuous distribution over the Grand Banks when biomass is high. These findings suggest a joint stock assessment between the 2J3KL and 3NO stocks would be advisable. However, barriers may need to be addressed to achieve collaboration between the two distinct regulatory bodies (i.e., DFO and NAFO) in charge of managing the stocks. Snow crab and yellowtail flounder centres of gravity have remained relatively constant over time. We also estimated novel indices of biomass, informed by environmental factors. Our study represents a step towards ecosystem-based fisheries management for the highly dynamic Grand Banks.

Well-being effect of international migration and remittance on human and gender development in South Asian countries.

This study investigates the well-being effect of international migration and remittance on human and gender development in selected South Asian countries. The study has adopted panel regression analysis using secondary data from the World Development Indicators and United Nations Development Programme. This database contains information on seven South Asian countries from 1995 to 2020. The study simultaneously applied the Levin-Lin-Chu, Breitung and IM-Pesaran unit root tests to check the stationarity of data. After satisfying the condition, econometric models such as Fixed and Random Effects were executed. Pesaran's test of cross-sectional independence, the Westerlund test for cointegration and VIF tests were performed in order to check the robustness of the results. As a post-diagnostic tool, the Hausman test suggests that the Fixed Effect models are appropriate for each estimation. The results demonstrate that personal remittance positively and significantly affects human and gender development. Similarly, international migration significantly influences human development while negatively affecting gender development. The study suggests that these countries should prioritize attaining higher remittances by sending more international migrants. Similarly, the provision of cheaper formal channels for remitting money and giving incentives can be effective for higher remittance inflow. Moreover, negotiation at the government-to-government level can effectively expand the international labour market of the selected countries.

Language distance and labor market integration of migrants: Gendered perspective.

This paper examines the distinct effects of linguistics distance and language literacy on the labor market integration of migrant men and women. Using data from the Programme for International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) 2018 in 16 countries of destination mainly from Europe and more than 110 languages of origin, we assess migrant labor force participation, employment, working hours, and occupational prestige. The study finds that linguistics distance of the first language studied has a significant negative association with labor force participation, employment, and working hours of migrant women, even after controlling for their abilities in their destination language, education, and cultural distance between the country of origin and destination. In contrast, linguistics distance is only negatively associated with migrant men's working hours. This suggests that linguistic distance serves as a proxy for cultural aspects, which are not captured by cultural distance and hence shape the labor market integration of migrant women due to cultural factors rather than human capital. We suggest that the gender aspect of the effect of language proximity is essential in understanding the intersectional position of migrant women in the labor force.

Parasite-mediated predation determines infection in a complex predator-prey-parasite system.

The interplay of host-parasite and predator-prey interactions is critical in ecological dynamics because both predators and parasites can regulate communities. But what is the prevalence of infected prey and predators when a parasite is transmitted through trophic interactions considering stochastic demographic changes? Here, we modelled and analysed a complex predator-prey-parasite system, where parasites are transmitted from prey to predators. We varied parasite virulence and infection probabilities to investigate how those evolutionary factors determine species' coexistence and populations' composition. Our results show that parasite species go extinct when the infection probabilities of either host are small and that success in infecting the final host is more critical for the survival of the parasite. While our stochastic simulations are consistent with deterministic predictions, stochasticity plays an important role in the border regions between coexistence and extinction. As expected, the proportion of infected individuals increases with the infection probabilities. Interestingly, the relative abundances of infected and uninfected individuals can have opposite orders in the intermediate and final host populations. This counterintuitive observation shows that the interplay of direct and indirect parasite effects is a common driver of the prevalence of infection in a complex system.

Neotropical mammal responses to megafires in the Brazilian Pantanal.

The increasing frequency and severity of human-caused fires likely have deleterious effects on species distribution and persistence. In 2020, megafires in the Brazilian Pantanal burned 43% of the biome's unburned area and resulted in mass mortality of wildlife. We investigated changes in habitat use or occupancy for an assemblage of eight mammal species in Serra do Amolar, Brazil, following the 2020 fires using a pre- and post-fire camera trap dataset. Additionally, we estimated the density for two naturally marked species, jaguars Panthera onca and ocelots Leopardus pardalis. Of the eight species, six (ocelots, collared peccaries Dicotyles tajacu, giant armadillos Priodontes maximus, Azara's agouti Dasyprocta azarae, red brocket deer Mazama americana, and tapirs Tapirus terrestris) had declining occupancy following fires, and one had stable habitat use (pumas Puma concolor). Giant armadillo experienced the most precipitous decline in occupancy from 0.431 ± 0.171 to 0.077 ± 0.044 after the fires. Jaguars were the only species with increasing habitat use, from 0.393 ± 0.127 to 0.753 ± 0.085. Jaguar density remained stable across years (2.8 ± 1.3, 3.7 ± 1.3, 2.6 ± 0.85/100 km2), while ocelot density increased from 13.9 ± 3.2 to 16.1 ± 5.2/100 km2. However, the low number of both jaguars and ocelots recaptured after the fire period suggests that immigration may have sustained the population. Our results indicate that the megafires will have significant consequences for species occupancy and fitness in fire-affected areas. The scale of megafires may inhibit successful recolonization, thus wider studies are needed to investigate population trends.

A crescente frequência e gravidade dos incêndios causados pelo homem provavelmente terão efeitos deletérios na distribuição e persistência das espécies. Em 2020, mega incêndios no Pantanal brasileiro queimaram 43% do bioma e resultaram na mortalidade em massa da vida selvagem. Nós investigamos mudanças no uso ou ocupação do habitat para uma comunidade de oito espécies de mamíferos na Serra do Amolar, Brasil, após os incêndios de 2020, usando um conjunto de dados de armadilhas fotográficas instaladas no período pré e pós­fogo. Além disso, estimamos a densidade de duas espécies naturalmente marcadas, a onça­pintada Panthera onca e a jaguatirica Leopardus pardalis. Das oito espécies, seis (a jaguatirica, o cateto Dicotyles tajacu, o tatu­canastra Priodontes maximus, a cutia Dasyprocta azarae, o veado mateiro Mazama americana e a anta Tapirus terrestris) tiveram ocupação reduzida após os incêndios, e uma teve uso de habitat estável (a onça­parda, Puma concolor). O tatu­canastra apresentou o declínio mais acentuado na ocupação após os incêndios de 0,431 ± 0,171 para 0,077 ± 0,044. A onça­pintada foi a única espécie com uso crescente de habitat, de 0,393 ± 0,127 para 0,753 ± 0,085. A densidade da onça­pintada permaneceu estável ao longo dos anos (2,8 ± 1,3, 3,7 ± 1,3, 2,6 ± 0,85/100 km2), enquanto a densidade da jaguatirica aumentou de 13,9 ± 3,2 para 16,1 ± 5,2/100 km2. No entanto, o baixo número de onças­pintadas e jaguatiricas recapturadas após o período do fogo sugere que a imigração pode ter sustentado as populações. Nossos resultados indicam que os mega incêndios terão consequências significativas para a ocupação e resiliência das espécies nas áreas afetadas pelo fogo. A escala dos mega incêndios pode inibir uma recolonização bem­sucedida, pelo que são necessários estudos mais amplos para investigar as tendências populacionais.